منابع مشابه
Coupled Model Hindcasts: Local and Remote Forcing
25 The skills of 11 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) are 26 investigated in the prediction of seasonal rainfall and circulation anomalies over the Northwest 27 (NW) Pacific for the period 1980-2001, with a focus on the summer following the mature phase 28 of El Niño [hereafter JJA(1)]. It is shown that the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) 29 mode of sea level...
متن کاملEvaluation of decadal hindcasts using satellite simulators
The evaluation of dynamical ensemble forecast systems requires a solid validation of basic processes such as the global atmospheric water and energy cycle. The value of any validation approach strongly depends on the quality of the observational data records used. Current approaches utilize in situ measurements, remote sensing data and reanalyses. Related data records are subject to a number of...
متن کاملPacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction.
Decadal-scale climate variations over the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings are strongly related to the so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which is coherent with wintertime climate over North America and Asian monsoon, and have important impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030, we require knowledge of the future stat...
متن کاملLong‐lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
The limits for the predictability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been long discussed. Even when ENSO prediction skill is expected to be limited, questions remain as to which are the controlling factors. The role of atmospheric noise for ENSO initiation, the growth of initial errors and inadequate models have been identified as key elements (e.g., Chen et al. 2004; Chen and Cane...
متن کاملMetrics and Diagnostics for Precipitation-Related Processes in Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts
In this study, several metrics and diagnostics are proposed and implemented to systematically explore and diagnose climate model biases in short-range hindcasts and quantify how fast hindcast biases approach to climate biases with an emphasis on tropical precipitation and associated moist processes. A series of 6-day hindcasts with NCAR and the U.S. Department of Energy Community AtmosphereMode...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2000
ISSN: 0027-0644,1520-0493
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1474:mhf>2.0.co;2